The eight biggest surprises from Ursula von der Leyen’s new European Commission

septembre 17, 2024

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From Austria’s unexpected assignment to Spain’s mega portfolio, the next Commission of Ursula von der Leyen has Brussels talking.

After several delays, multiple leaks, a political feud in Slovenia and a dramatic last-minute resignation, Ursula von der Leyen has presented her new team of European Commissioners for the next five years.

The 26 nominees still need to undergo confirmation hearings at the European Parliament and some might succumb during the grilling due to their past controversies, lack of competence or just good old-fashioned partisan retaliation.

Nevertheless, von der Leyen’s proposed structure offers a unique insight into how she wants to reshape the executive to cope with the overwhelming challenges besetting the European Union, from Russia’s war on Ukraine and China’s unfair competition to stagnant economic growth, a rapidly aging population, a steady rise in asylum seekers and the widespread ravages of climate change.

Here are the biggest surprises from the much-anticipated announcement.

Austria gets migration

Austria, the country that the European Court of Justice has condemned for unlawfully extending border controls, that has called for EU funds to be used for fences, and that has blocked the full integration of Romania and Bulgaria into the Schengen Area, has been awarded the portfolio of Internal Affairs and Migration.

If that wasn’t odd enough, the fact that Vienna’s nominee, Magnus Brunner, has a strictly financial background makes the assignment even more head-scratching.

But it’s also a sign of times. The debate on irregular migration has shifted hard to the right, as the latest developments in Germany demonstrate, so giving the delicate portfolio to a member of the European People’s Party (EPP) brings the Commission in greater harmony with the Parliament and, most importantly, the Council.

The move underscores von der Leyen’s intention to explore « new ways to counter irregular migration, » as she wrote in her political guidelines. This euphemism (also called « innovative solutions ») is associated with contested plans to outsource asylum procedures to non-EU countries – an approach that, coincidentally, Austria supports.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior Commission official predicted Brunner would have a « tough » parliamentary hearing but said it could be « helpful » to bring the perspective of a politician from a country that has had challenges with Schengen.

A half-baked gift for Meloni

One of the main questions surrounding von der Leyen’s new team has been: How much will she give to Italy?

The mystery was fuelled by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s publicised opposition to the president’s re-election: first, she abstained when EU leaders divvied up the top jobs, and later, she instructed MEPs from her hard-right Brothers of Italy party to vote against her in the Parliament.

The antagonism shattered Meloni’s facade as a pragmatic stateswoman and exposed the enduring Euroscepticism that had propelled her rise to power. It also appeared detrimental to her efforts to secure an economic vice presidency for Italy.

In the end, Italy’s nominee, Raffaele Fitto, became one of her six executive vice presidents, as Meloni desired. But the ascendancy was dented halfway: Fitto will be in charge of Cohesion and Reforms, a role that entails largely administrative responsibilities and removes him from tricky discussions on fiscal rules, competition and taxation.

Still, Fitto’s nomination represents the first time a hard-right politician will have such a high-level position in the Commission.

« Italy is a very important country and one of our founding members, and this has to reflect also in the choice, » von der Leyen said, arguing the Parliament already has two vice presidents from Fitto’s hard-right group.

Odd hybrids

Von der Leyen knew very well she needed to streamline the hierarchy within her Commission, which, in some cases, had suffered from overlapping and redundancy. For that, she retitled portfolios, reworked assignments and deleted one layer of power, choosing six executive vice-presidents to oversee 20 Commissioners.

« We have dissipated the former rigid stovepipes, » she told reporters.

But as she began detailing the structure of her next team, eyebrows were inevitably raised. Some portfolios appeared to be strong-armed hybrids of completely unrelated topics, raising serious questions on how that will work in practice.

Exhibit A: Belgium’s Hadja Lahbib has been tasked with Preparedness and Crisis Management – which entails supervising billions in emergency aid to cope with natural disasters and assist war-torn regions – but also with Equality, which covers women’s rights, LGBTQ+ rights, the prevention of domestic violence and the fight against racism.

Exhibit B: Croatia’s Dubravka Šuica has snatched the brand-new role for the Mediterranean, focused on developing comprehensive partnerships with neighbouring countries to boost economic ties and curb irregular migration, while retaining her current portfolio for Demography, which centres on the EU’s population decline.

Exhibit C: The Netherlands’ Wopke Hoekstra, who will be busy juggling climate action, including taking part at UN summits and implementing the Green Deal, with taxation, including the fight against tax fraud and the reform of corporate taxation.

Women at the very top

The quest for gender balance has defined von der Leyen’s presidency since 2019, when she asked member states to propose two nominees, male and female, to guarantee equality. This year, she made the same request but was resoundingly rebuffed.

Facing a male-dominated executive, von der Leyen engaged in a behind-the-scenes push to change the minds of some capitals and ensure greater female representation. The lobbying worked with Romania, which dropped Victor Negrescu and proposed Roxana Mînzatu, and with Slovenia, which switched from Tomaž Vesel to Marta Kos (causing a domestic mess along the way). Meanwhile, Bulgaria was the only country that fulfilled the president’s demand and put forward two names.

All of this has been rewarded. Mînzatu, an unknown face in Brussels, has been elevated to executive vice-president for People, Skills and Preparedness. Kos, whose nomination is still not final, has been given the coveted portfolio of Enlargement, which is poised to be extremely consequential. Bulgaria’s Ekaterina Zaharieva will be in charge of Startups, Research and Innovation, managing the bloc’s multi-billion Horizon programme.

Additionally, Finland, one of the few countries that proposed a woman from the beginning, has gained an executive vice-presidency for Henna Virkkunen, a sitting MEP. She will handle Tech Sovereignty, Security and Democracy.

Overall, four women and two men will take up the six executive vice presidencies – women make up 40% of the College – clear evidence of how important gender balance is for von der Leyen.

Spain snatches mega portfolio

If we speak about powerful women, Teresa Ribera deserves her own section.

From the onset, the Spaniard was tipped for a good position in von der Leyen’s team. Her executive experience in Pedro Sánchez’s left-wing government and her international background in the fight against climate change made her an indisputable frontrunner to take command of the European Green Deal.

See got that – and much more: Ribera will be the executive vice-president for a Clean, Just and Competitive Transition, a horizontal mandate that will encompass the 90% emission-reduction target for 2040, the design of a Clean Industrial Deal, the promotion of circular economy and the fight against energy poverty, among others.

Anticipating a right-wing backlash, the president assigned Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth to Wopke Hoekstra, a Dutch conservative, who will work under Ribera’s oversight. « Good coordination, good cooperation is paramount, » von der Leyen explained.

What’s more, Ribera has been entrusted with Competition Policy, succeeding Margrethe Vestager. Competition is one of the biggest prizes in Brussels because the treaties give the Commission the sole competence to decide over mergers, state aid and antitrust.

How to adapt the EU’s competition rules to the new economic landscape shaped by the US-China rivalry and AI revolution will be one of Ribera’s most pressing tasks. This means the Spaniard will be under the intense scrutiny of Berlin and Paris, who are lobbying Brussels to loosen the purse strings to allow for the emergence of European champions. But this grand vision is resented by mid- and small-size member states.

Expect a full-on political fight with Ribera right in the middle.

Progressives breathe a sigh of relief

Gender balance was one of von der Leyen’s main criteria in forming her new College, but certainly not the only one. Partisan affiliation was an essential factor in assigning roles and the proposed structure reflects the haggling between right, centre and left.

The EPP, the largest group in the Parliament, gets the presidency (von der Leyen) and one executive vice-presidency (Virkunnen). The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) receive two executive vice-presidencies for Ribera and Mînzatu, while the liberals of Renew Europe capture another two: Kaja Kallas as High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Stéphane Séjourné for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy.

For the socialists, the division is a relief. Previous leaks suggested they were going to fare poorly, prompting the leadership to fire a pointed warning against being left on the sidelines. Among the liberals, who painfully fell from third to the fifth-largest group after the June elections, similar worries weighed heavily.

But, as the Commission’s structure displays, von der Leyen is determined to keep together the three-party coalition that proved instrumental in her re-election going in a bid to guarantee predictability for her second term. The generosity is in full display: Mînzatu will oversee employment, inclusion and social affairs, a must-have for the socialists, while Séjourné will captain the single market, a prized asset for the liberals. (Still, the EPP accounts for more than 50% of all jobs.)

The only « outsider » at the very top will be Raffaele Fitto, who hails from the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the hard-right group that has struck occasional partnerships with the EPP, much to the progressives’ dismay.

Two veterans revamped

Latvia’s Valdis Dombrovskis and Slovakia’s Maroš Šefčovič are certified Brussels veterans, having worked on various portfolios for several presidents. They are both considered dependable, flexible and loyal colleagues.

For her second mandate, von der Leyen has chosen to rely on them, again, but with a noticeable revamp. Both are downgraded from executive vice-president to Commissioner and retain parts of their old powers while attaining fresh ones.

In the case of Dombrovskis, he is tasked with Economy and Productivity, which already falls within his remit, and ventures into Implementation and Simplification, the cutting of red tape that von der Leyen has promised to EU companies. In fact, in this second task, he will report directly to the president, rather than the vice-president above him.

For his part, Šefčovič keeps Interinstitutional Relations and Transparency and, in an unexpected twist, becomes Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, a title that demonstrates how closely interlinked commerce and geopolitics have become in the 21st century. As such, Šefčovič will be expected to, on the one hand, sign free trade deals with reliable countries and, on the other, stand up to China’s unfair practices.

Coincidentally, the trade portfolio had been until now in the hands of Dombrovskis.

Orbán, thrown to the wolves

The relationship between von der Leyen and Viktor Orbán is at an all-time low. The premier’s contentious visit to Moscow in July unleashed a boycott against Hungary’s presidency of the Council of the EU and a harsh rebuke by the Commission chief, who denounced his meeting with Vladimir Putin as a « plain appeasement mission. »

At the same time, Hungary is refusing to pay a €200 million fine imposed by the ECJ and is threatening to bus asylum seekers to Belgium, an unprecedented attempt to instrumentalise migration against another member state. Budapest is also withholding €6.5 billion in military assistance for Ukraine and is set to derail an EU-US joint loan for the war-torn country.

All of this is likely to have crossed von der Leyen’s mind as she was putting the finishing touches to her next executive.

The result of the calculation was giving Oliver Várhelyi, Orbán’s nominee, one of the least consequential portfolios at play: Health and Animal Welfare. It is doubtless a surprise assignment for Várhelyi, who is currently in charge of Neighbourhood and Enlargement policy, a substantial position that has grown in importance over time.

But Orbán’s provocations severely diminished Budapest’s chances of retaining relevance in the next mandate. Keeping enlargement in Hungarian hands was a non-starter given Orbán’s reluctance to endorse Ukraine’s EU aspirations.

Crucially, Várhelyi’s long string of controversies makes him the nominee in greatest danger of being rejected by the Parliament.

Another country that drew the short straw was Malta, which lobbied to capture the novel portfolio for the Mediterranean but ended up with Intergenerational Fairness, Youth, Culture and Sport.

The likely reason? Nominating Glenn Micallef. The highest position the 35-year-old has ever held is chief of staff to Prime Minister Robert Abela, a far cry from the « executive competence » demanded by von der Leyen.

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