A changing calculus
Russia, which is believed to have the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, had cooperated for decades with the U.S., China and others in trying to prevent North Korea from achieving its goal of becoming a full-fledged nuclear-armed state, participating in six-party talks in the 2000s and supporting an international sanctions regime that began in 1948.
Its calculus changed two years ago with the start of the war in Ukraine, which has drained Moscow’s weapons arsenal.
“Putin needs ammunition from someplace else, and the only place in the world that will give it to him is North Korea,” Cha said.
The U.S. first accused North Korea of supplying Russia with artillery shells in late 2022. The flow of weapons appears to have only accelerated since, with a State Department spokesperson saying this week that Pyongyang had unlawfully transferred dozens of ballistic missiles and more than 11,000 containers of munitions to Moscow in recent months.
North Korea and Russia deny the transfer of arms for use in Ukraine, which would violate United Nations Security Council resolutions that Russia has supported in the past.
Their relationship took a major step forward last September when Kim visited Russia’s far east, where he toured a Russian spaceport and Putin suggested that Russia could help North Korea build satellites.
In March, Russia blocked the continued monitoring of U.N. sanctions against North Korea with a veto in the Security Council, which could help North Korea advance its nuclear weapons program.
The deepening relationship between Russia and North Korea culminated Wednesday with Putin’s visit to Pyongyang, where he was greeted with a lavish ceremony and cheering crowds.
The two leaders also exchanged gifts. Kim received his second Russian-made Aurus limousine — both of which are in violation of Security Council sanctions banning the transfer of luxury items to North Korea — along with a tea set and a naval officer’s dagger. In addition to artwork depicting the Russian leader, Kim also gave Putin two Pungsan hunting dogs, a rare breed native to North Korea.
The two leaders say they are supporting each other in the face of politically motivated sanctions aimed at maintaining Western hegemony.
China, which is North Korea’s biggest trading partner and is also growing closer to Russia, has been muted in its response to Putin’s North Korea visit, which put it in a “difficult position,” Cha said.
Beijing is less ostracized than Pyongyang and Moscow, and is unlikely to risk its relations with other parts of the world to fully join forces with Kim and Putin.
“They care about what Europe thinks,” Cha said, “and North Koreans and Russians together are killing Europeans” in Ukraine.
Putin continued to look for support elsewhere Thursday during his state visit to Vietnam, which tries to be neutral in its foreign policy and has refrained from condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The U.S., which upgraded its relationship with Vietnam last September, has rebuked Vietnam over the visit.
The two-nation Asia tour is a boost for Putin as he finds himself increasingly isolated internationally, Cha said.
“Putin is shaping the environment and conversation in Europe and in East Asia and after Vietnam, he’ll be shaping it in Southeast Asia,” he said.
“He actually likes this, and for him it shows that Russia is back.”
Stella Kim reported from Seoul, South Korea, and Mithil Aggarwal reported from Hong Kong.
Monica Alba and Andrew Gee contributed.
