Three years of war in Ukraine: ‘Environmental damage knows no borders’ as emissions rise to new high

February 24, 2025

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Forest fires have contributed to a 31 per cent rise in emissions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine over the last 12 months.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has emitted nearly 230 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents since it began on 24 February 2022.

Rising by 31 per cent over the last 12 months, the total is now the same as the annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia combined.

This unique methodology from the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War is endorsed by the Ukrainian government and aims to hold Russia liable for these emissions and the resulting climate-related damage.

The study is co-authored by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) member Svitlana Krakovska, who is set to deliver the findings in a speech this Monday morning at the 62nd session of the IPCC in Hangzhou, China.

Raging wildfires defined the last 12 months for Ukraine

According to data compiled from the European Forest Fire Information System, Ukraine was plagued by wildfires in 2024, which were triggered considerably by the war. The area burned over the last 12 months was more than double the annual average from the previous two years, increasing to 92,100 hectares.

Emissions from all landscape fires, including forests, more than doubled to 25.8 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents – a 118 per cent increase compared to the wartime annual average for previous years.

Most of these fires occurred at or near the frontlines of the war or in border areas.

“Ignition points during war are, for example, shelling at both sides (explosions), firing ammunition, crashing drones, exploding mines, soldiers making campfires,” lead author of the report Lennard de Klerk explains to Euronews Green.

“Due to the ongoing hostilities and mining, firefighters cannot reach the area, so a starting fire becomes much bigger and intensive and will only stop once all fuel (trees and bushes) has been burnt.”

What was different about the last year, de Klerk says, was that the weather was unusually dry on the frontlines in eastern Ukraine. Combined with several heat waves this resulted in a very high Fire Weather Index.

“The probability of such weather has become much higher due to climate change. So you see that climate change creates conditions for forest fires, war is triggering them, causing carbon emissions, which causes more climate change. This is a vicious cycle of destruction,” he adds.

Uncontrolled fires – fuelled by weather linked to climate change – led to a massive jump in carbon emissions, as well as the destruction of vegetation and other carbon sinks.

The latest analysis says that last year stands out as a “worrying example” of how climate change and armed conflict mutually reinforce each other, fueling a cycle of destruction from global warming.

What are other major sources of Ukraine’s increased carbon emissions?

As fighting continued, emissions from military activity continued a steady growth in the last 12 months, overtaking the other major category of climate costs: the reconstruction of damaged buildings and infrastructure.

Warfare has now become the biggest source of emissions after three years. Fossil fuels burned by vehicles like tanks and fighter jets – major consumers of diesel and kerosene – make up the majority of these emissions at 74 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents.

Though the use of drones has become more prominent in the last 12 months, this has not replaced the use of carbon-intensive artillery shells, doing little to reduce emissions from ammunition use.

Intensified attacks on energy infrastructure brought a 16 per cent rise in this category of conflict emissions.

Oil infrastructure was particularly hard hit, causing emissions to surge to 2.1 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents in the last 12 months, compared to 1.1 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents in the preceding 24 months.

Planes continued to avoid or were banned from airspace above Russia and Ukraine, meaning they flew further and so racked up more emissions. This has pushed conflict-related aviation emissions up to 14.4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents since the invasion began.

Emissions tied to fleeing refugees remained largely unchanged.

The study’s findings for the last 12 months are currently preliminary, with some data yet to be published.

Ukraine is seeking damages for the carbon emissions of war

Those backing the research say Russia should be held liable for the emissions from the war in Ukraine and the resulting climate-related damage.

“The full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine is entering a fourth year. The analysis published today shows that environmental damage knows no borders, and the war is exacerbating the climate crisis that the whole world is facing today,” says Ukraine’s minister of environmental protection and natural resources, Svitlana Grynchuk.

“This report is an important document to hold Russia accountable for the harm it is causing to all of us.”

With peace negotiations in the air, de Klerk adds that the climate costs of the war should not be forgotten.

“It is too early to say how the peace talks will impact our work, but we believe Russia should compensate Ukraine for the damage done as decided by the UN General Assembly on the 14th of November 2022,” he says.

By applying a ‘social cost of carbon’ of $185 (€178) per tonne of CO2 equivalent, they put Russia’s liability after three years of war at over $42 billion (€40.3 billion).

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