One of the study’s key messages is the pressing need to adapt to rising fire risks while limiting further warming.
ADVERTISEMENTIn 2022, the UK experienced an unprecedented heatwave, with temperatures reaching 40C for the first time in recorded history.
This extreme heat was accompanied by widespread fires across London and elsewhere in England, which destroyed houses and prompted evacuations.
A new study has assessed the contribution of human-induced climate change to the fire and weather conditions over this period.
The analysis, conducted by the Met Office, the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and the University of Exeter, reveals at least a 6-fold increase in the probability of very high fire weather due to human influence.
“As we experience more hotter and drier summers as temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of fires are likely to increase, posing significant risks to both natural ecosystems and human populations,” the authors write.
“This study underscores the need for further research to quantify the changing fire risk due to our changing climate and the urgent requirement for mitigation and adaptation efforts to address the growing wildfire threat in the UK.”
‘Fires are an emerging threat to the UK’
The study highlights how rising temperatures and drier conditions driven by climate change are dramatically increasing the risk of extreme fire weather in the UK.
England emerged as the most vulnerable UK nation in the paper, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters on Tuesday.
The researchers compared the present-day climate to one without human influence through greenhouse gas emissions to understand how climate change had impacted the chance of fire weather.
To do so, they combined data from advanced climate models and a ‘fire weather index’ – an indicator of hot, dry, windy weather conditions that provoke fires.
They looked at how changes in the weather affected the danger posed by fires – how far they were likely to spread and intensify – once they were ignited.
The results emphasise that climate change is not just a future concern but a present-day reality, with fire risks rising in tandem with global temperatures.
“The 2022 heatwave wasn’t just record-breaking – it drastically increased the risk of fires, highlighting the growing danger climate change poses to the UK,” says lead author Dr Chantelle Burton from the Met Office.
“We found that the 2022 UK severe fires were made at least six times more likely due to human influence. With hotter, drier summers becoming the norm, fires are an emerging threat to the UK.”
Fire risk is a ‘start reminder’ of the urgent need to adapt
One of the paper’s key messages is the pressing need to adapt to rising fire risks while limiting further warming.
ADVERTISEMENTAn urgent and significant reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions would limit the increase in future fire risks. Targeted adaptation measures could also help communities and ecosystems cope with the escalating threat.
Some actions to reduce fire risks could include enhanced land management, building away from areas at high risk, enhancing detection of fires or public campaigns to reduce accidental fires.
“The experiences of 2022 serve as a stark reminder of the urgent need to adapt to a changing climate and reduce carbon emissions to limit further warming,” says Burton.
Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate
The UK isn’t the only place in Europe facing a higher risk of fire. A study published in Nature in 2024 looked at the future of fire risk for Europe as a whole.
ADVERTISEMENTThe analysis explored the impact of a range of climate change projections on fire events compared to a baseline of fire danger using a 30-year fire weather index analysis.
The results show that areas in southern Europe could experience a tenfold increase in the probability of catastrophic fires occurring in any given year under a moderate warming scenario.
If global temperatures reach the +2C threshold, central and northern Europe will also become more susceptible to wildfires during droughts.
The increased probability of fire extremes in a warming climate, in combination with an average one-week extension of the fire season across most countries, would put extra strain on Europe’s ability to cope in the forthcoming decades, the authors say.
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