Does Le Pen’s National Rally victory threaten Franco-German relations?

ADVERTISEMENT

While the French election is underway, the results could have a significant impact on Germany. Analysts have suggested that Berlin’s influence over the EU will shrink following Marine Le Pen’s National Rally’s first-place finish in the first round of France’s parliamentary election.

Cornelia Woll, president of Berlin’s Hertie School, said if the National Rally secured a majority in parliament, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s job would get tougher.

She told Euronews that « the Franco-German relationship relies on close contacts at various ministerial levels. » A National Rally majority would alter these dynamics because of their « explicitly anti-German stance, » so there will be a lot of work to be done to « normalise relations between France and Germany.”

Germany regards France as its most important and closest partner in Europe. Chancellor Scholz recently expressed concern about the election, stating his preference for « any party without Le Pen, » but acknowledging that the decision rests with the French people.

German media is focusing on the risks and losses for French President Emmanuel Macron. A leading member of Scholz’s party said Germany might have to prepare for Le Pen as president.

Matthias Diermeier, a political economist at the German Economic Institute, suggested that Germany would struggle to undertake significant EU projects if the National Rally succeeds. He told Euronews that German politicians are « really afraid of a Eurosceptic government in France, » especially Jordan Bardella’s questioning of the European Energy Union and fiscal conservatism under the Growth and Stability Pact.

Woll also said that if the National Rally gets a majority, France might turn away from Germany and towards Italy, « where it’s easier to build bridges ». She doubted that the historically challenging Franco-German working relationship would be enough to bridge the partisan political gap.